Vor Jahren hatte ich auch so gedacht - im wesentlich mit dem Blick auf die demographischen Realitäten (höhere Geburtenraten unter Palästinensern und niedrigere bei jüdischen Israelis). Nun sieht es aber tatsächlich seit einiger Zeit so aus, dass die Fertilität der jüdischen Israelis die der Araber übertreffen könnte; letztes Jahr war die Ziffer bei beiden bei ca. 3,1 Kindern pro Frau.Tom Bombadil hat geschrieben:(11 Dec 2017, 11:27)
Was soll an einer Einstaatenlösung gut sein? Dann könnten die jüdischen Israelis direkt die Koffer packen.
Unter solchen Umständen wäre gegebenenfalls auch eine Einstaatenlösung denkbar, bei der die jüdischen Israelis die Mehrheit bleiben und die Macht ausüben. Allerdings wird viel davon abhängen, wie es mit den Charedim, den Ultraorthodoxen, weitergeht, denn diese tragen wesentlich zur hohen Geburtenrate, aber bisher nicht so sehr zur Kampfeskraft und Produktivität Israels bei.
Die Demographie wird von vielen Israelis als Schlüssel zur Lösung des Konfliktes gesehen.
http://www.jns.org/latest-articles/2017 ... 8LQrSdXUI=New statistics show that the Israeli-Jewish fertility rate this year has surpassed that of the Israeli-Arab population for the first time, defying analysts who have made long-term projections of a Jewish minority in Israel.
At the same time, it remains to be seen whether the numbers will affect the political landscape of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The upward-trending Jewish rate of 3.16 births per woman, and the corresponding downward-trending figure of 3.11 for Israeli Arabs, can lead to more confident policy decisions by the Israeli government, said demographic expert Yoram Ettinger, who published a recent report on the issue.
“In contrast to the stated position of the establishment’s prophets of demographic doom, there is no Arab demographic time bomb, but there is an unprecedented Jewish demographic tailwind,” Ettinger, the former minister for congressional affairs at the Israeli Embassy in Washington, D.C., told JNS.org.
[...]
Ettinger believes that the 66-percent Jewish majority in the combined areas of Judea and Samaria (commonly known as the West Bank) and pre-1967 Israel, along with “a fertility tailwind and a huge untapped aliyah potential,” mean that Israelis will be “more inclined” to reject a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
[...]
Ettinger asserted that the more aware Israelis become about the current strength of Jewish demography, the more willing they will be to eventually annex Judea and Samaria, which he described as the historical, religious, cultural and strategic core of the land of Israel.
Yet Efraim Inbar, president of the recently established Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies, told JNS.org that the new demographic figures do not significantly change realities on the ground.
“Even if Israel’s Jewish fertility rate is higher than the Arabs in Israel or in the West Bank, the demographics of the region will not change rapidly, leaving 1.5-2 million Arabs, mostly living in the cities of Area A (which is under the full civil and security control of the Palestinian Authority),” Inbar said.
“The main question does not revolve around birth rates, but whether it is wise for the Jewish state to incorporate in its midst such a large hostile population,” he added, referring to the Palestinian Arabs.